EUR/USD
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD has fallen to around 1.16 as markets now price a higher probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end while expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to react less to inflation. Diverging PMI data show the Eurozone economy is hit harder by higher Oil and gas prices than the US, leaving EUR/USD sensitive to developments in the Iran conflict.
GBP/USD
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect GBP/USD to continue trading sideways between 1.3400 and 1.3460 after a strong rise failed to extend. On a 1–3 week horizon, near‑term downward pressure is seen as having eased, with the Pound likely to range between 1.3330 and 1.3530. Longer term, a weekly close below 1.3300 could trigger a slide toward 1.2945/1.3010.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY hovers at around 159.00, virtually unchanged, amid traders’ fears that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades unchanged at around 159.02.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD extends its losses after a slight decline in the previous day, trading around 0.7140 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within an emerging descending wedge, suggesting two scenarios depending on how the price reacts to its boundaries.
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD recovered and is now trading near the 0.5880 region on Friday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) loses momentum despite resilient economic data, while improving market sentiment and stronger demand for risk-sensitive assets support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
USD/CAD
USD/CAD gains ground for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3790 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
USD/CHF
The Swiss Franc trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7870 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The USD/CHF pair consolidates as investors await the confirmation of a prolonged peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran, following the announcement that both sides have reached a “final draft” with mediation from Pakistan.
CRUDE OIL
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday, rebounding from recent losses as markets awaited more signs of progress towards a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Upbeat comments from U.S. officials on peace talks with Iran saw oil prices nursing deep losses for the week.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot heading into the European session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and holds above the $4,500 psychological mark. The US Dollar (USD) holds steady near a six-week high, touched on Wednesday, amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Apart from this, mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal benefit the Greenback’s reserve currency status and turn out to be a key factor that undermines demand for the commodity.
Any information provided therein are indicative and subjective to the technical analysis method or trading patterns used and the timing of their release. Those are provided as general market information and/or market commentary and/or the publication of market/factual data and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment recommendation, and/or to be Investment Advice or independent Investment Research. As such, the legal and regulatory requirements in relation to independent investment research do not apply to this material and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. For the full Risk Disclaimer click here.
