EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran revives risk appetites. Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will be released later on Thursday.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD was little changed on Wednesday, settling close to 1.3510 after a choppy session that reached 1.3540 in London hours before fading toward 1.3490. Price has been pinned inside a 65-pip band through midweek, with long upper and lower wicks pointing to two-way uncertainty.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY was little changed on Wednesday, hovering close to 159.50 in a narrow session after Tuesday’s push to 159.64. Price has been confined between 159.10 and 159.60 through the midweek stretch, with overlapping small-bodied candles pointing to indecision.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD is stuck within a range as Middle East geopolitical tensions remain high, with US President Trump extending the ceasefire while Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, risk appetite sent the S&P 500 to an all-time high, while currencies leaned into the Greenback’s dynamics, which recovered some ground.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.5910 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid faded safe-haven demand following US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to trade laterally on Wednesday during the North American session, flattish at around 1.3658, as the pair seems capped by Monday’s price action, in which the Loonie appreciated 0.34% against the US Dollar (USD).
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair turns positive for the third straight day following an intraday dip to the 0.7830 region and climbs to a fresh one-and-a-half-week high during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices climb beyond mid-0.7800s and look to build on this week’s recovery move from the lowest level since March 11 amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD).
CRUDE OIL
Don’t expect things to return to normal. Before the conflict in the Middle East, the oil market was in the hands of the bears. Demand was falling due to the shift towards alternative energy sources, whilst supply was rising. OPEC+ was gradually increasing production to avoid losing market share and investors were talking about a record surplus. Today, the IEA estimates the loss of supply at 12 million barrels per day, which is more than during the Arab oil embargo of 1973–1974 and the Iranian Revolution of 1978–1979 combined. However, it would be rather naive to think that the end of the war will cause prices to plummet. Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take months to restore production in the damaged energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf. At the same time, countries are seriously concerned about energy security and will work hard to boost oil demand. Interestingly, the current decline in demand is preventing Brent from soaring too high.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it continues to show some resilience below the $4,700 mark. The US Dollar (USD) gains positive traction for the third straight day as signs of friction between the US and Iran remained due to the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. Furthermore, a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and dimming hopes for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the Greenback, exerting some pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
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