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04.07.2023 Market Report


 EUR/USD is trading close to 1.0900, holding lower ground in early Europe. The main currency pair is facing selling pressure as the market mood turns cautious and underpins the safe-haven US Dollar. Thin trading to extend on the US Independence Day.


GBP/USD is hovering around the 1.2700 level, struggling for a clear direction in the European morning. Fears of recession and the US-China tussle put a floor under US Dollar, weighing on the major. Traders are likely to stay on the sidelines on the US Independence Day. 


USD/JPY fades the previous day’s recovery moves around 144.60 amid early Tuesday morning in Europe, suggesting the market’s cautious mood amid the US Independence Day holiday and mixed sentiment.


AUD/USD aptly portrays the market’s disappointment with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) no rate hike decision on early Tuesday as it slumped nearly 40 pips within a minute of the Interest Rate Decision to 0.6644, pressured around 0.6650 at the latest.


The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers for the third successive day on Tuesday and holds steady above mid-0.6100s through the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain well within the previous day’s broader trading range, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from a three-week low touched last Thursday.


USD/CAD stays defensive for the fourth consecutive day around 1.3250 heading into Tuesday’s European session. The Loonie pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the US Independence Day holiday and the cautious mood ahead of the key Canadian catalysts. That said, Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Business Outlook Survey and June’s readings of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI appear crucial to watch for clear directions.


At the start of the week, the USD/CHF saw some volatility but remained in positive territory. Soft inflation figures from Switzerland weakened the Swiss Franc leading USD/CHF to rise initially while falling Treasury yields made the USD lose interest following a soft Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) release. The pair remains in positive territory, however, but has erased its daily gains which had seen the pair jump to a high of 0.9000 during the European session.


Right on cue, the Saudis came out to say their million-barrel cut for July will be extended to August and possibly September — maybe even infinitely. The Russians talked up their cuts too. But the announcements coincided with particularly bad global factory activity, sending crude prices lower.


Gold price is trading around a flatline near $1,920 early Tuesday, having enjoyed good two-way price action on Monday before ending the day almost unchanged. Thin trading conditions are likely to extend during the day, as the US markets are closed in observance of Independence Day.

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