EUR/USD
According to MUFG’s Derek Halpenny, the ECB’s communication and achievement of its price stability goal leave it in a relatively better position than the BoE, but he is sceptical that higher front-end Euro yields will sustain Euro strength. With DXY correlations shifting from yield spreads to Brent, he continues to see EUR/USD downside risks tied to conflict-related Oil dynamics.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD retreats on Friday, trading around 1.3380 at the time of writing, down 0.39% on the day, after Thursday’s strong rally following the Bank of England (BoE) decision. The corrective move comes as the US Dollar (USD) regains some traction, despite a broader backdrop shaped by a hawkish repricing of global monetary policy.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is up 0.4% to near 158.33 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair recovers after a sharp sell-off on Thursday, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) retaining its hawkish stance on the monetary policy outlook.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair trades with mild gains around 0.7090 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Greenback, following the hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% at its March meeting on Tuesday. This marks the second consecutive rate hike of the year, following a 25 bps increase in February.
NZD/USD
The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.5880 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on a narrower-than-expected New Zealand trade deficit. Traders will closely watch the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could impact the currency pair.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is retesting the ceiling of a multi‑week consolidation that has remained intact since late January, near 1.3730, as the commodity‑linked Canadian dollar finds support from elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk, against a softening US dollar as surging energy costs cloud the global rate outlook.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair edges higher to near 0.7890 during the early European trading session on Friday. The Swiss Franc pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back after a sharp sell-off the previous day.
CRUDE OIL
Oil prices gained on Friday despite leading European nations, Japan and Canada offering to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. outlining moves to boost oil supply.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to near $4670, snapping the seven-day losing streak during the early European session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as the ongoing US-Iran conflict spikes demand for safe-haven assets. Traders will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East.
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